Thursday, October 15, 2015

A Thumbnail Sketch

Yesterday I watched the Democratic debate on the interweb, because on Tuesday night I chose to spend time with friends drinking Guiness and playing trivia at a bar rather than yelling at the TV.  So I'm a little late on my analysis, and quite frankly since I had already seen some reaction tweets before I saw the thing itself, I already had some things to look for, but here goes.
The Democratic nomination is being contested by a mere five (possibly six if Biden jumps in) candidates.  Hilary Clinton, current front runner and the object of passionately divided voter feelings, Bernie Sanders, your crazy uncle who has some really good ideas but may just be a little too unhinged to actually get elected, Martin O'Malley, the Ken Doll of politics (seriously, if you were going to invent a fictional politician it would look like that guy), Lincoln Chafee, New England switcheroo politician who claims to be a block of granite, and Jim Webb, who I think is sort of the Dem's answer to Trump, at least in the red, angry guy sense.
This is the first debate, and the issues are sort of still in the introductory phase.  In addition to that the debate format wasn't your standard equal time sort of arrangement.  The talk moved based on who was asked the question, and then gave anyone whose positions/records were attacked time to respond.  Webb was apparently not a fan of this format because it decidedly favored Clinton, Sanders and O'Malley over he and Chafee, who were positioned on the ends of the row and for most of the debate were a non-factor.  Unfortunately this caused Webb's most memorable contribution to be complaining about not getting a chance to talk and sounding like a particularly grumpy teenager trying to get the teacher's attention.
Webb and Chafee being present on the Democrat's slate is a testament to the fact that the Republican Party has migrated towards extreme and dogmatic positions.  Chafee actually used to be a Republican, fiscally conservative but with some socially liberal tendencies that put him out of the good graces of the GOP, he became an independent and now a Democrat.  Webb seemed hawkish enough to belong up there with Trump, he's a military guy and had some blustery things to say about Putin and China and how he would set stuff in order, but I don't think there's too many Democrats in the "kick-butt and take names" school of foreign policy these days.
The optics are bad for both the marginal candidates, and let's face it, in American politics, as much as we wish it wasn't so, optics are important. They both just sort of look wrong for this part.  Bernie does too, but I'll get back to him.
Clinton and O'Malley are the polished stones of this bunch.  O'Malley has worked his way up through the executive offices of Mayor of Baltimore and Governor of Maryland.  Not long after I moved here I saw O'Malley in Panera Bread over in Waldorf, and to tell you the truth he totally sort of blends with the business/political crowd that you often see around the DC area.  In fact, if it hadn't been for the person I was eating with saying, "Hey, there's Martin O'Malley," I probably wouldn't have noticed him.  Outside of Maryland O'Malley has the advantage of a pretty blank slate and the disadvantage of the fact that no one knows who he is and what he's about.  Which is why, if I had to pick a winner of Tuesday's debate, it would be him, because he showed up and didn't humiliate himself or make any Biden-esque gaffs.  He adequately introduced his record and his platform and he didn't look totally outshined by Clinton or Sanders.  First debate down, and you're not being laughed off the stage, that's success in politics these days (sorry Chafee, the interweb is taking you down for that whole "block of granite" comment).
Clinton, likewise came across as polished and confident, which should surprise absolutely zero people at this point.  If anything, Hilary suffers from over-exposure.  We have been watching her since Bill was in office and she was the first lady.  It has come to seem like a fait-accompli that she will be our first woman president, even after Barack Obama snuck up on her in 2004.  Benghazi and emails aside (and for everyone but Fox News they really are passe) she has only made her case stronger by serving as Secretary of State.  You can absolutely see her becoming POTUS, which makes some happy and gives others howling fits of angst.  She is a politician to the core.  She has compromised, changed and "evolved" her positions about many things, and of course the political sensibilities of the age call that waffling or being duplicitous (thus Chafee's block of granite statement). But as Clinton very shrewdly pointed out: changing your mind is a sign of wrestling with issues and being open to new information, and sometimes, gulp, compromise.
Honestly, compromise seems to be a totally lost cause in politics at the moment, and if there is one thing that makes me think Clinton would be a better POTUS than Bernie, it is precisely that part of her nature that can play both sides of an issue, and follow the course of expediency.  If politicians are wolves, she is the Alpha female, and maybe that means she's the right one for the job.  She is certainly no stooge.
Which brings me to Bernie.  Bernie is no wolf.  Bernie is an Israelite in whom there is no guile. Bernie is not trying to be cool, he is not trying to project an image.  He is a man of demonstrable integrity concerning his convictions. Other people have lamented Super PACs, but formed them anyway.  Other people have bemoaned the use of personal attacks and mudslinging in political discourse, but then crafted their own attack ads and got in the dirt. Bernie proudly announces that he has done none of that.  Sanders insists on treating his fellow candidates with respect, which actually looks weird when you see it (that's how far we have fallen). I heard him say positive things about the people sharing the stage with him and saw him refuse to take the bait when given the opportunity to take a clear shot.
I started by liking Bernie's policy angle (I guess I'm a bit of a socialist), I like his ideas about education, campaign finance, healthcare and I like the fact that he is committed to using military force as a last resort (as he proudly states in the 99-1 vote about the Iraq war, he was the 1).  Honestly, until Bernie came along, I had almost no hope that politics was going to get any better, ever.  What I saw in this debate, the general civility and reasonableness of the whole thing is, I think, a product of his influence.  He refuses to play certain games. He will always volunteer to be the adult in the room.  He will argue loudly and passionately about his positions, and he can seem a bit bombastic in certain moments (especially when he talks about the corrupting influence of money in politics), but when it comes to addressing the lady to his left, he was kind and gentlemanly.  When he talked to Webb on his right, he was respectful and honored his service. It's not about the people being bad people, it's about his belief that his ideas are better.
This election is, as many elections have been, a referendum on the soul of our nation. Can we dare to go to battle with a man like Bernie Sanders?  He's such an idealist.  He's willing to be the voice in the wilderness, and I suspect he would be utterly ineffective as POTUS. He would have to change a whole system that has been broken for a very long time, and I'm not sure one guy, even the Commander in Chief has that sort of stroke.
I suspect that none of his amazing ideas would ever make it into practice, because they would require to great a move from where we are now and the direction we're going.  I hope we stop the insanity of perpetual war, and the crushing expense of healthcare and education, and Bernie has pushed us in that direction.  I hope the disastrous decision of Citizen's United is reversed somehow some way, and Bernie will shout that from the rooftops. I just don't know if the American people are ready and willing to get on the bandwagon of putting the good of all over self interest of the few.  I sort of hope that the middle class is ready to realize the place they're in and who put them there.  I sort of hope they're ready to rise up and reject the narrative that we just can't do any better and vote in their own best interest.
The cynic in me says that dollars are going to rule the day, and that the ideas Bernie is cooking would just be too expensive and involve too much pain to too many rich and powerful people.  After the first debate, my head says that Clinton or O'Malley would probably be fine, but my heart still says Bernie.

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